ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2003 THERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED NOW...WHILE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF ABOUT 200 NMI TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF PUFFS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...BUT NO SUSTAINED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER. WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KT BY 24 TO 48 HOURS SHOULD ALSO PREVENT ANY REGENERATION FROM OCCURRING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...THE FELICIA NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TPC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH UNDER WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP2. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.7N 136.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.9N 139.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.1N 142.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/1800Z 18.3N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0600Z 18.6N 148.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC