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Tropical Storm FELICIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2003
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED NOW...WHILE THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF ABOUT
200 NMI TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF PUFFS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...BUT NO SUSTAINED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER. WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING TO
AT LEAST 50 KT BY 24 TO 48 HOURS SHOULD ALSO PREVENT ANY
REGENERATION FROM OCCURRING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION HAS
DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...THE FELICIA
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
TPC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH UNDER WMO HEADER FZPN03
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP2.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 17.7N 136.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 17.9N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.1N 142.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 18.3N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N 148.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC