Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THERE ARE SOME
WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING UNDER
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION
IN A TWO OR THREE DAYS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 16.0N 128.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.3N 130.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.9N 133.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 135.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 139.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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