Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
FELICIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  FELICIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE-SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WEST OF 130W SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. 
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD.  MOST
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT
ACCELERATE FELICIA TO A COMPROMISE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER BAM
MODELS AND THE SLOWER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE
WATCHED IS THAT FELICIA...OR ITS REMAINS...COULD TURN MORE WESTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FELICIA.  THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...
ALTHOUGH IT COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS WHILE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS ALIVE.  THE SHEAR AND THE FORECAST MOTION OVER COOLER WATER
SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE IS 36-48 HR...WITH THE
REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY 120 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 15.6N 124.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.9N 125.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.3N 128.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N 131.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 133.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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