Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FELICIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO NOTE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT THE
FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 11 KT.  THIS NECESSITATES AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME HEADING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE.  THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING TOO MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA...AND LEADING TO A NORTHWARD BIAS TO
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO BE JUST
NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  FELICIA WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 15.3N 123.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 125.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.9N 127.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.4N 130.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 132.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC