Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO NOTE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT THE
FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 11 KT.  THIS NECESSITATES AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME HEADING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE.  THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING TOO MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA...AND LEADING TO A NORTHWARD BIAS TO
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO BE JUST
NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  FELICIA WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 15.3N 123.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 125.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.9N 127.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.4N 130.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 132.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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