ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003 FELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z THAT SHOWS ONLY A FEW RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA HAS WEAKENED. THERE ARE NO SATELLITE ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS EITHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE ARE DIVERGENT AND DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE...BUT THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER DRY. SSTS ARE MARGINAL... BETWEEN 26 AND 27C. THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. EAST PACIFIC STORMS THAT WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION RARELY REDEVELOP...BUT THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER FELICIA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AFTER 36 HOURS IT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS COOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/14. IN SPITE OF THIS...ALL THE GUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. HOW MUCH CURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND AGAIN IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 15.2N 121.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 15.2N 123.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 15.7N 126.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0600Z 19.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/0600Z 24.5N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC