Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
FELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE CENTER...BUT A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z THAT SHOWS ONLY A FEW
RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA
HAS WEAKENED.  THERE ARE NO SATELLITE ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE
TROPICAL STORM STATUS EITHER.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
CYCLONE ARE DIVERGENT AND DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE...BUT
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER DRY. SSTS ARE MARGINAL...
BETWEEN 26 AND 27C. THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  EAST PACIFIC STORMS THAT
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION RARELY REDEVELOP...BUT THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
FELICIA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AFTER 36 HOURS IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS
COOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE. 
 
SSMI AND QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/14. IN SPITE OF THIS...ALL THE
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. HOW MUCH
CURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN
FAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND AGAIN IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 15.2N 121.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 15.2N 123.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.7N 126.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/0600Z 24.5N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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