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Tropical Storm FELICIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003
FELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE CENTER...BUT A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z THAT SHOWS ONLY A FEW
RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA
HAS WEAKENED. THERE ARE NO SATELLITE ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE
TROPICAL STORM STATUS EITHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
CYCLONE ARE DIVERGENT AND DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE...BUT
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER DRY. SSTS ARE MARGINAL...
BETWEEN 26 AND 27C. THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. EAST PACIFIC STORMS THAT
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION RARELY REDEVELOP...BUT THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
FELICIA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AFTER 36 HOURS IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS
COOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE.
SSMI AND QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/14. IN SPITE OF THIS...ALL THE
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. HOW MUCH
CURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN
FAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND AGAIN IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 15.2N 121.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 15.2N 123.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 15.7N 126.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0600Z 19.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/0600Z 24.5N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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