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Tropical Storm FELICIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
FELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25
TO 35 KT.  GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSLATION SPEED...16 KT...I AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
THAT WILL KEEP FELICIA A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHEAR IS
LOW...BUT THE SURROUNDING AIR IS RATHER DRY.  SSTS ARE
MARGINAL...BETWEEN 26 AND 27C.  THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...
HOWEVER...FELICIA SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES AND COOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT DOMINATES THE CONVECTION THEN FELICIA WOULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THERE IS
INSUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR FELICIA TO RESPOND TO IT.  ALL THE
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THIS WEAKNESS.  HOW MUCH CURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 15.5N 120.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 15.6N 122.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 16.2N 125.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 16.8N 128.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/0000Z 24.5N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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