Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FELICIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
FELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25
TO 35 KT.  GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSLATION SPEED...16 KT...I AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
THAT WILL KEEP FELICIA A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHEAR IS
LOW...BUT THE SURROUNDING AIR IS RATHER DRY.  SSTS ARE
MARGINAL...BETWEEN 26 AND 27C.  THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...
HOWEVER...FELICIA SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES AND COOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF THE
DRY ENVIRONMENT DOMINATES THE CONVECTION THEN FELICIA WOULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THERE IS
INSUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR FELICIA TO RESPOND TO IT.  ALL THE
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THIS WEAKNESS.  HOW MUCH CURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 15.5N 120.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 15.6N 122.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 16.2N 125.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 16.8N 128.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/0000Z 24.5N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC