Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15.  THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS ALSO A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...BUT NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO REFLECT THIS FEATURE IN THEIR TRACK FORECASTS
AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
 
A CDO FEATURE PERSISTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 40 KNOTS...INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES.  MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTS THE WIND SPEED MAY BE LOWER THAN 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.
  
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 15.6N 115.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.1N 118.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.6N 121.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 124.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 17.6N 127.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 132.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 20.1N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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