Tropical Storm FELICIA

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003

FELICIA FEATURES A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS EVENING...
WITH LIMITED THOUGH CURRENTLY INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE STORM IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15.  FELICIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY ALL LARGE-SCALE
MODELS.  THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN INVERTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF FELICIA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A
FAIRLY QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THIS IS
AGREED UPON BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION.
 
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 15
KT OF SHEAR OVER FELICIA...SO THE CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION
IS A LITTLE PUZZLING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO
STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR 36-48 HR...SO THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN
IF IT SOLVES WHATEVER PROBLEMS IT HAS RIGHT NOW.  BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AT 24-36 HR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 15.4N 114.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.7N 116.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.1N 119.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.6N 122.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.2N 125.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 20.0N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN