ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003 AFTER THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED...A SSMI PASSAGE OVER FELICIA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION AND NOT EMBEDDED AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS MEANS THAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS TO BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND THE WINDS HAVE TO BE DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS. THE CURRENT LOCATION AND STRUCTURE ALSO SUGGEST CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND FELICIA MAY NOT REACHED HURRICANE STATUS AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. FELICIA IS NOW HEADING FOR AN AREA OF DRYER AND STABLE AIR. BOTH GFS AND THE NOGAPS WEAKEN FELICIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FELICIA IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS UNTIL WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE BEST ESTIMATED OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH IN FACT ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.5N 112.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC