Tropical Depression SIX-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OR SO.  THIS IS THE
RESULT OF STEERING BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW THAT MUCH RIDGING TO
THE NORTH...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS.

SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB AND
KGWC BASED ON A SMALL COLD CDO FEATURE.  HOWEVER I AM RELUCTANT TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM ON NIGHTTIME IMAGERY.  RECENT SSMI...TRMM AND
AMSU PASSES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND YESTERDAYS LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER A LITTLE EAST OF THE CONVECTION.  THE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DO MUCH WITH THE INTENSITY EXCEPT FOR THE SHIPS
MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 60 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL EXCEPT BRINGING THE WIND
SPEED TO ONLY 55 KNOTS.  INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 14.7N 109.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 112.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 15.4N 115.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 15.7N 118.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 122.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N 134.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W    30 KT
 
 
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