Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2003
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SEPARATE FROM THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY
OUTFLOW CIRRUS ON THE WEST SIDE...THE INITIAL POSITION OF ENRIQUE
IS CONFIRMED BY 13/0105Z QUIKSCAT AND 13/0337Z SSMI OVERPASSES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON 40-45 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND
SPEEDS NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND THE
CONTINUED DEGRADED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...  
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT NEAR  
THE SURFACE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. ENRIQUE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A
BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.
 
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE...
ENRIQUE IS PRESENTLY OVER 23C SSTS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
UNFAVORABLY COOL WATER FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFETIME AND...
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED THAT SCENARIO. ENRIQUE SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 19.4N 119.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 19.9N 124.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 19.8N 126.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 19.3N 129.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 138.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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