Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003
 
COLD WATER HAS TAKEN AN UNEXPECTEDLY SEVERE TOLL ON ENRIQUE THIS
AFTERNOON.  WHILE SOME INTENSE BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL
OCCURRING...THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE
HAS BECOME RAGGED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHILE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL BE
SET AT 50 KT.

ENRIQUE IS NOW MOVING 305/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THAT
THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
18N127W.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM CONTINUATION
OF THE CURRENT MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS
ENRIQUE WEAKENS FURTHER AND LOWER-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES.  THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.
 
ENRIQUE WILL BE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST BASED ON THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN.  HOWERVER...ENRIQUE COULD DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 18.4N 116.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.3N 117.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 20.1N 120.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 20.5N 122.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATING
 
 
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