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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 HOURS
AGO...BUT ENRIQUE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM ALL THREE
SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS
UNRESTRICTED AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/14 AS ENRIQUE HAS CONTINUED ITS
SHARP NORTHWESTWARD JOG. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THIS RECENT NORTHWESTWARD JOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH LONGER AND IT MAY BE PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN
FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS
THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE MAKING MORE OF A WESTWARD TURN ALREADY.
NEARLY ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INSIST ON TAKING THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN TURNING IT
WESTWARD AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AS SPREAD AMONG THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE GENERAL
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS NOW WITHIN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN
ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.
 
TIME IS QUICKLY RUNNING OUT FOR ENRIQUE TO BECOME THE FIRST
HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARING 26C SSTS AND THE WATER GETS
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THE PREVIOUS SHIPS
OUTPUT...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...AND SHIFOR. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT ENRIQUE COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
NEXT 6 TO PERHAPS 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COOLER WATER...
AFTER WHICH STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 16.5N 113.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 17.3N 115.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 18.1N 118.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 18.8N 123.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N 133.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC