Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003
 
RATHER INTENSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...MAKING THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE SCATTER IN
THE FIX POSITONS PROVIDED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER
...11/0107Z QUIKSCAT AND 11/0451Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES CONFIRM
THE INITIAL POSITION SHOULD BE RELOCATED FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION
TO THE RELOCATION...THE RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EMBEDDED AT LEAST 30 NMI WITHIN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF -70C CLOUD TOPS. BASED ON CONSENSUS 30 KT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE NEW CENTER LOCATION...THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09...BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE
FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. ENRIQUE IS EMBEDDED IN
MODEST DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE INSISTS ON TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE POLEWARD INITIALLY AND
THEN TURNING IT WESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE UKMET IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND P91E MODELS BEING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE REACTING TO AN
INITIALIZED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 400 NMI WEST OF
ENRIQUE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER-LOW
NO LONGER EXISTS AND THAT EASTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT WEST OF ENRIQUE.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE BETWEEN THE P91E AND GFS MODELS.

DESPITE THE RECENT IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A FORECAST
FOR THE EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR TO WEAKEN...ENRIQUE ONLY HAS A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE IS IT EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER SUB-25C SSTS BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
MOST OF THE STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. HOWEVER...IF ENRIQUE SLOWS
DOWN A LITTLE MORE...THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE TIME OVER WARM WATER
AND THE STORM COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 14.7N 109.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 111.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.5N 114.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 16.4N 116.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.2N 119.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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