Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2003
 
A FEW BURSTS OF COLD-TOP CONVECTION HAVE FIRED OFF NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OBSERVED EARLIER WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED.
THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE IS
BEGINNING. NONETHELESS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 25 KT
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AFWA...TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN AN ENVIROMENT OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LESSENING OF THE
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO
45 KT IN 24 HOURS THEN MAINTAINS THIS INTENSITY WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE 24 TO 36
HOUR TIMEFRAME...NARROWING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE 18 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS A MUCH
BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE INNER VORTEX OF THE CYCLONE. IT 
MOVES THE DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO
THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A WESTWARD TURN IS
LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND STEERING IS GOVERNED BY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT TURNS THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST SOONER.
 
FORECASTER COBB/AVILA

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 15.0N 109.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.6N 111.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 16.4N 113.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N 116.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 124.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 129.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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