ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2003 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM AFWA AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A TIGHT INNER SWIRL WITH LIMITED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE BANDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND THIS WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INNER CORE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHEAR PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AS UNFAVORABLE AS IT DID EARLIER...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS SO THERE IS A LIMITED TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM NOT TO BE ANALYZING THE INNER VORTEX WELL AND THEIR EXPLICIT TRACK GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE THAT USEFUL. HOWEVER... THESE MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND THEREFORE I EXPECT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GFDL AND BAM MODELS. RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS...TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...EXTEND ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 14.8N 108.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 15.4N 109.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 16.1N 112.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 16.9N 114.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC