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Tropical Depression FIVE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2003
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM AFWA AND 30 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION
CONSISTS OF A TIGHT INNER SWIRL WITH LIMITED CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND THIS WILL PROBABLY
SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INNER CORE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
SHEAR PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AS UNFAVORABLE AS IT DID EARLIER...AND
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LESSEN. 
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS SO THERE IS A LIMITED TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SEEM NOT TO BE ANALYZING THE INNER VORTEX WELL AND
THEIR EXPLICIT TRACK GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE THAT USEFUL. HOWEVER...
THESE MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION AND THEREFORE I EXPECT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY
WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND
OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GFDL AND BAM MODELS.

RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS...TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...EXTEND
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 14.8N 108.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.4N 109.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.1N 112.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 16.9N 114.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC