Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION IN THE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO INITIATE
ADVISORIES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR MAY LESSEN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS WILL AFFORD THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  AFTER
THAT...A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1700Z 14.3N 107.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 14.4N 108.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N 110.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.7N 112.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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