ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2003 DOLORES REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND A 07/1358Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB-24C WATER TEMPERATURES AND ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY TO ALLOW ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO FOR THE WIND FIELD TO SPIN DOWN. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASINS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DOLORES WILL REMAIN OVER 24C OR LESS SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND...THEREFORE... NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. AS SUCH...DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 17.5N 121.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 08/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATED 24HR VT 08/1800Z 18.3N 125.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/0600Z 18.6N 127.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/1800Z 18.8N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC