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Tropical Storm DOLORES


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2003
 
DOLORES REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND A 07/1358Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CYCLONE IS OVER SUB-24C WATER TEMPERATURES AND ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS
BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY TO
ALLOW ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO FOR THE WIND FIELD TO SPIN DOWN.
 
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASINS.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DOLORES WILL REMAIN OVER 24C OR LESS SSTS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND...THEREFORE... NO REGENERATION IS
EXPECTED. AS SUCH...DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 17.5N 121.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 18.3N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.6N 127.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.8N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC