ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 07 2003 DOLORES IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB-25C WATER TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF BURST OR TWO OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT. THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OF ALL THE MODELS AND LOSES THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. THE GFDL DISSIPATES DOLORES EVEN SOONER IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT SHOULD REMAIN A SHALLOW VERTICAL SYSTEM AND BE STEERED IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS. DOLORES WILL REMAIN OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATER. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...DESPITE FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.2N 120.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 08/0000Z 17.8N 122.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 08/1200Z 18.4N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATED 36HR VT 09/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/1200Z 19.6N 128.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1200Z 20.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC