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Tropical Storm DOLORES


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 07 2003
 
DOLORES IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB-25C WATER
TEMPERATURES.  A BRIEF BURST OR TWO OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WHERE THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. HOWEVER...IT
IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP
NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.

ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER
THAT. THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OF ALL THE MODELS AND LOSES THE
SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. THE GFDL DISSIPATES DOLORES EVEN SOONER IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT SHOULD REMAIN A
SHALLOW VERTICAL SYSTEM AND BE STEERED IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS.
 
DOLORES WILL REMAIN OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER EVEN
COOLER WATER. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN
OF THE VORTEX IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...DESPITE
FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 17.2N 120.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.8N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 18.4N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATED
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 19.6N 128.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC