ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003 VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND ANOTHER LARGER CENTER CLOSER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. EITHER WAY...THE INITIAL POSITION IS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM DOLORES BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...SO WAS THE PREVIOUS 12Z POSITION WHICH MAKES THE STORM MOTION ABOUT 300/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING OTHER THAN TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE TO THE NORTH THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. AFTER THAT...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WITH TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF DOLORES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WEAK WILL THE CYCLONE WILL IN 72 HOURS. SINCE DOLORES WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 48 HOURS... THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL...AND BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING DOLORES TO PEAK AT AROUND 43 KT IN 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-25C SSTS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE SHIPS MODEL WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 15.2N 118.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 15.7N 119.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 16.4N 121.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 16.9N 123.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 17.3N 125.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 132.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 11/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC