Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOUR-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003
 
A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPED OVER
THE EP942003 SUSPECT AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS RESULTING
IN DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC RESPECTIVELY. 
WHILE THERE WAS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CENTER ON YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EVEN THOUGH RECENT
QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA ARE AMBIGUOUS...IT IS A COURSE OF LEAST
REGRET TO ISSUE A DEPRESSION ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/10.  THE
GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 72 HOURS.  THERE IS A CUT-OFF
MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N 143W WHICH COULD INCREASE THE NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS BUT ONLY IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW LEVEL SWIRL.

THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH DIAGNOSES LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...NOW OR FORECAST...BUT
INCREASINGLY COLDER SSTS ARE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH ARE THE
LIMITING FACTOR.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 13.9N 116.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.7N 117.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.8N 123.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC