Tropical Depression FOUR-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003
 
A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPED OVER
THE EP942003 SUSPECT AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS RESULTING
IN DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC RESPECTIVELY. 
WHILE THERE WAS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CENTER ON YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EVEN THOUGH RECENT
QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA ARE AMBIGUOUS...IT IS A COURSE OF LEAST
REGRET TO ISSUE A DEPRESSION ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/10.  THE
GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 72 HOURS.  THERE IS A CUT-OFF
MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N 143W WHICH COULD INCREASE THE NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS BUT ONLY IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW LEVEL SWIRL.

THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH DIAGNOSES LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...NOW OR FORECAST...BUT
INCREASINGLY COLDER SSTS ARE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH ARE THE
LIMITING FACTOR.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 13.9N 116.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.7N 117.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.8N 123.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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