ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2003 AFTER LOOKING QUITE DISORGANIZED AROUND 04Z...CONVECTION IS RE-DEVELOPING IN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS 30 KT WINDS INDICATED NEAR THE CENTER ON TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD ON THE SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL. TD 3-E IS CURRENTLY IS A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER 24-36 HR...WHICH WOULD CREATE A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY FASTER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 24-72 HR PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS ARE BOTH STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF THE SYSTEM STAYS OFFSHORE AND THE SHEAR DECREASES AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED. THE FORECAST TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THUS REMAINS IN FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 14.5N 98.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 99.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 15.7N 100.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.4N 102.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.9N 103.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 108.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 19.5N 111.0W 40 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC