ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2003 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SO TO WARRANT ITS CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST AND THERE IS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE 200 MB FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE PERIOD AND...IF THIS VERIFIES...THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...295/10...IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WOULD WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY PARALLEL THE COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THIS FORECAST COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST. THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.4N 98.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 99.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 101.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 102.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 103.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 18.0N 105.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC