Tropical Depression THREE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2003
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SO TO
WARRANT ITS CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST AND
THERE IS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE 200 MB FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE LATER IN THE PERIOD AND...IF THIS VERIFIES...THE SYSTEM
COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...295/10...IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THERE IS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH
IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WOULD
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 
THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY PARALLEL THE COAST OF MEXICO...BUT
ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THIS FORECAST COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  THEREFORE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 14.4N  98.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N  99.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.8N 101.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N 102.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N 103.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N 105.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KT
 
 
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