Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BLANCA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUN 22 2003
 
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS...BLANCA HAS NOT MADE A
CONVECTIVE COMEBACK. THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT WISE TO
KILL A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT NIGHT SINCE CONVECTION CAN ALWAYS
REDEVELOP...SO BLANCA IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FOR
ONE MORE ADVISORY UNTIL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE.
THERE ARE NO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ANY OF THE THREE
AGENCIES... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT
PASS WHICH SHOWED A 25 KT NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDSPEED AND A
TIGHT LOW-CLOUD SWIRL PATTERN SEEN IN A 22/0437Z SSMI OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/03. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE COMPASS...WHICH USUALLY INDICATES A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. SINCE BLANCA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW
SYSTEM...IT IS MAINLY BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY A LONG FETCH OF
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO MEXICO. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A SLOW EASTERLY
COMPROMISE.
 
THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED ACROSS BLANCA SINCE
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS FAIRLY QUICKLY...
THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE
ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AND THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH DISSIPATES BLANCA IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL
ACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48
HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE LARGE DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF BLANCA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 15.8N 105.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.9N 104.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.9N 104.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC