Tropical Storm BLANCA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003
BLANCA IS HANGING ON BY A THREAD. IT IS PRODUCING SOME DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH-SIDE OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT
CONTINUES TO BATTLE THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. BLANCA IS
OVER 28C WATER AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR BLANCA TO REGAIN STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS...AND
SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL DECAY.
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AROUND BLANCA REMAINS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE NET
MOTION IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.6N 105.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.6N 105.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.6N 105.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 105.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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