ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003 BLANCA IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A SOMEWHAT EGG-SHAPED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL SITTING UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. STILL...BLANCA IS OVER 28C WATER AND HAS GENERATED DEEP CONVECTION EACH OF THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...AND IT COULD EASILY DO SO AGAIN TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR BLANCA TO REGAIN STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY. THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AROUND BLANCA IS WEAK...WITH A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE INTERFERING WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL DESTINY OF A COLD-WATER DEATH. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 15.5N 106.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.5N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC