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Tropical Storm BLANCA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003
 
BLANCA IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A SOMEWHAT
EGG-SHAPED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL SITTING UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLIES. STILL...BLANCA IS OVER 28C WATER AND HAS GENERATED DEEP
CONVECTION EACH OF THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...AND IT COULD EASILY DO SO
AGAIN TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
BLANCA TO REGAIN STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY. 
 
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AROUND BLANCA IS WEAK...WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE INTERFERING WITH A
CLIMATOLOGICAL DESTINY OF A COLD-WATER DEATH.  THE INITIAL MOTION
REMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED WHILE THE
SYSTEM WINDS DOWN. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 15.5N 106.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC