Tropical Storm BLANCA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003
BLANCA IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A SOMEWHAT
EGG-SHAPED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL SITTING UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLIES. STILL...BLANCA IS OVER 28C WATER AND HAS GENERATED DEEP
CONVECTION EACH OF THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...AND IT COULD EASILY DO SO
AGAIN TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
BLANCA TO REGAIN STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY.
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AROUND BLANCA IS WEAK...WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE INTERFERING WITH A
CLIMATOLOGICAL DESTINY OF A COLD-WATER DEATH. THE INITIAL MOTION
REMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED WHILE THE
SYSTEM WINDS DOWN.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 15.5N 106.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.5N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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