Tropical Storm BLANCA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BLANCA IS FARTHER EAST THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT. OVERNIGHT THE CYCLONE GENERATED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS DRIVING THE WEAKENING CONVECTION FARTHER
FROM THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND BLANCA
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 1230Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KT. THIS
PASS ALSO PROVIDES A NICE EXAMPLE OF HOW OBJECTIVE AMBIGUITY-
REMOVAL ALGORITHMS CAN GO ASTRAY IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION IS APPARENT IN THE AMBIGUITIES BUT NOT IN THE
RETRIEVED VECTORS.
BLANCA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 15.5N 106.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 22/1200Z 15.5N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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