Tropical Storm BLANCA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003
 
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BLANCA IS FARTHER EAST THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT. OVERNIGHT THE CYCLONE GENERATED DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS DRIVING THE WEAKENING CONVECTION FARTHER
FROM THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND BLANCA
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 1230Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KT. THIS
PASS ALSO PROVIDES A NICE EXAMPLE OF HOW OBJECTIVE AMBIGUITY-
REMOVAL ALGORITHMS CAN GO ASTRAY IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION IS APPARENT IN THE AMBIGUITIES BUT NOT IN THE
RETRIEVED VECTORS.

BLANCA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 15.5N 106.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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