ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003 BLANCA HAS SHEARED APART THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD. THERE IS NOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THIS AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 1455Z THAT SHOWED AT BEST 30-35 KT WINDS...BLANCA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STATIONARY AND A WESTWARD DRIFT. THERE IS ONE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF BLANCA...THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST SOUTH OF BLANCA FEEDING INTO THE DISTURBANCE. NHC GUIDANCE...SAVE THE GFDN...STILL FORECASTS A WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO...BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT BLANCA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD BE PULLED EASTWARD AND ABSORBED INTO THE DISTURBANCE AS SHOWN BY THE GFDN. GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF BLANCA...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS THAT COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND SHOULD BE DOWN MAINLY DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION. SHOULD CONVECTION NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...BLANCA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 15.5N 106.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.5N 107.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 15.6N 107.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/1800Z 15.8N 108.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC