ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2003 BLANCA HAS CONSOLIDATED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CDO...WHILE MEXICAN RADAR FROM CUYUTLAN SHOWS A GOOD... THOUGH INCORRECTLY NAVIGATED...BANDING PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. HOWEVER...BLANCA MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER GIVEN THE RADAR APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 320/2. BLANCA REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING BETWEEN THE STORM AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN U. S. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGHING SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER BLANCA SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A NEW WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THUS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES HINT THAT BLANCA MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANALYZED. IF SO...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NEED TO BE REVISED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. BLANCA REMAINS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...35-50 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES SHOULD DEVELOP AND SHEAR THE SYSTEM. BLANCA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL THEN...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF SHEAR...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. BLANCA REMAINS A SMALL CYCLONE...ABOUT 200 N MI IN DIAMETER...AND THUS COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.8N 104.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.1N 104.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 104.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 105.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 106.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 109.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 111.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC