Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003
 
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONCLUSIVE BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER IS NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AS PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. WE WILL ASSUME THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BUT THE TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A
NORTHEASTWARD DEVIATION FROM THIS TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED EXPANSION
OF THE WIND FIELD WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
 
THE CYCLONE IS NEAR...OR AT...TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON
AND 35 KT FROM THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
IS SITUATED OVER VERY WARM WATER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING
RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 50 KT AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM...BUT OF COURSE THEY LACK ADEQUATE
RESOLUTION TO PROPERLY SIMULATE INTENSITY CHANGE.  CURIOUSLY...THE
GFDL MODEL SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THEN LOSES IT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 16.6N 103.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N 103.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.4N 103.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 17.8N 104.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 18.1N 104.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 105.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 107.5W    35 KT
 
 
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