ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2003 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 OR 25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE DEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THEN DRIFT IT SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS POORLY INITIALIZED THE CENTER AS MUCH AS 4 DEGREES TOO FAR SOUTH...SO ONLY THE GENERAL MOTION TREND AND NOT THE SPECIFIC VORTEX LOCATIONS WERE USED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE NOGAPS MODEL HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AT 18Z...SO IT WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED ALONG WITH THE CLIPER AND DEEP BAM MODELS. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 43 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DUE TO THE SHIPS OUTPUT BEING BASED ON A RATHER FAST MEDIUM BAM FORECAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE AND THE ONLY REAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HOW MUCH...IF ANY...DRY AIR FROM MEXICO WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. IF LAND EFFECTS AND DRY AIR DO NOT AFFECT THE CYCLONE...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. NOTE: DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING. THE TPC HAS BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE BY TELEPHONE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 16.5N 103.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 17.1N 103.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 17.6N 103.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 18.1N 104.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 105.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 108.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 18.5N 109.0W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC