Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003
 
AS IT OFTEN DOES...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS HAS COMPLICATED THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.  THE 1430Z PASS OVER ANDRES
SHOWED SEVERAL PRESUMABLY GOOD 30 KT VECTORS NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.  AT ABOUT THIS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THERE WERE NUMEROUS 40-45 KT VECTORS.  I
BELIEVE THAT THESE ARE PROBABLY VALID AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE
A COUPLE OF 50 KT VECTORS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER THAT
ARE MORE LIKELY CONTAMINATED.  MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE CYCLONE
HEADED OVER COOLER WATERS I AM FACED WITH THE DILEMMA OF HAVING TO
RAISE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT A TIME WHEN THE CYCLONE IS PROBABLY
WEAKENING.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANDRES HAS BEEN A BIT STRONGER ALL
ALONG.
 
ANDRES IS CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE PASSING UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CONVECTIVE
BURST THAT IS CURRENTLY FADING MAY BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT
ONE...AND ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY CARRIES A
CIRCULATION FOR 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE... CURRENTLY 15 KT...THE CIRCULATION COULD EASILY OPEN UP
INTO A WAVE BEFORE THEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES OVER
COOLER WATERS...ANDRES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AFTER
12 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS TRACK AND SHALLOW BAM
SPEED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 14.6N 132.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 134.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 140.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 150.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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