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Tropical Storm ANDRES


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003
 
ANDRES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN
-80C...NEAR A HARD-TO-FIND CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...
WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CONFINING THE CONVECTION TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA AGREE ON 35 KT...AND
THAT REMAINS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE PAST FEW QUIKSCAT PASSES HAVE MISSED ANDRES...BUT THE
UPCOMING ONE SHOULD BE A HIT AND MIGHT SHED SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ON
THE INTENSITY.
 
ANDRES IS CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE PASSING UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE CURRENT
STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST MAY THEREFORE BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT
ONE...AND ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY CARRIES A CIRCULATION
FOR 96 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE...
CURRENTLY 15 KT...THE CIRCULATION COULD EASILY OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
BEFORE THEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.  AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES OVER
COOLER WATERS...ANDRES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AFTER
12 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM MODEL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 14.2N 131.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.7N 133.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 14.9N 136.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 147.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 15.0N 150.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC