Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003

AS SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE
CENTER OF ANDRES.  HOWEVER...TONIGHTS BURST IS NOWHERE NEAR AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THAT OF THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 30 KT
FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THIS AND
THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP.

ANDRES IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER...AND IT IS ENCOUNTERING
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
KEEPS ANDRES AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HR.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS...AS NONE OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO THE REMAINS OF THE
SYSTEM FOR THAT LONG.  THE REMNANT LOW MAY WELL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL WAVE BEFORE 96 HR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16.  ANDRES IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS...AND CONTINUE A
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.2N 131.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.4N 134.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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