Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ANDRES CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS JUST A
SHAPELESS AREA OF CLOUDS ON IR IMAGES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
BECAUSE ANDRES IS RAPIDLY HEADING FOR STRONGER SHEAR AND COOL
WATERS...IT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ANDRES IS MOVING 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE TO WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE CELLS BEFORE DISSIPATION. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 13.6N 128.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 131.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 134.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 14.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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