Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003
 
INITIAL LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN.  02Z QUIKSCAT SUGGESTED NO CLOSED LOW
LEVEL CENTER.  MORE RECENT AMSU AND SSMI MICROWAVE DO SUGGEST THAT A
LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL THERE.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/18 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PLACES
THE CENTER UNDER AND NEAR THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STORM ON A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE GFS...UKMET AND GFDL SHOW
DISSIPATION. THE NOGAPS SHOWS A WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 55 KT
FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THESE ESTIMATES INDICATE
STRENGTHENING BASED ON THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CENTER UNDER
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF STORM DO NOT
RESOLVE THE EXISTENCE OR LOCATION OF THE CENTER BUT SUGGEST THAT IT
MAY NOT BE WELL DEFINED AND THAT IT MAY NOT BE AS FAR WEST AS THE
INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.  THESE ISSUES WILL HOPEFULLY BE RESOLVED
BY THE NEXT ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ARE THE BASIS
FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 12.6N 124.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.1N 127.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.6N 130.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 132.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.3N 135.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 147.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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