ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2003 STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON ANDRES. THE TIGHT AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM IS NOW RACING AWAY FROM THE LIMITED CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH. DESPITE THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OBSERVED ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THERE IS ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HEADING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING. BECAUSE THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION...A CONSERVATIVE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS A 35-KNOT STORM FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS ANDRES APPROACHES COOL WATERS. BEYOND 3 DAYS..ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A WEAKENING AND SHALLOW ANDRES COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 11.7N 119.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 12.2N 122.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 14.0N 130.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/1800Z 15.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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