Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2003
 
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON ANDRES. THE TIGHT AND
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM IS NOW RACING AWAY FROM
THE LIMITED CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH. DESPITE THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OBSERVED
ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
THE CYCLONE DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THERE IS ANOTHER BAND
OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HEADING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING. BECAUSE THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION...A CONSERVATIVE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS A 35-KNOT STORM FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN CALLS FOR
WEAKENING AS ANDRES APPROACHES COOL WATERS. BEYOND 3 DAYS..ANDRES
IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW.
 
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 18
KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A WEAKENING AND SHALLOW
ANDRES COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 11.7N 119.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.2N 122.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 130.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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