ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2003 WHILE ANDRES REMAINS SHEARED FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IT LOOKS MUCH HEALTHIER THAN 24 HR AGO. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR OR POSSIBLY UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE CONVECTIVE AREA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. SINCE THE CENTER COULD ACTUALLY BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANDRES IS STRONGER THAN 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/16. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF ANDRES IS NOW NEAR 21N115W. A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANDRES ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A 280-290 DEGREE MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT TROUGHING SHOULD LINGER BETWEEN 140W AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THIS IS MOREL LIKELY TO SHEAR ANDRES THAN STEER IT...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE 200 MB HIGH THAT IS AND HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET HAS YET TO PUT IN AN APPEARANCE. TO THE CONTRARY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES COVERING THE AREA WEST OF 122W. SHOULD ANDRES HIT THESE...THE STORM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN. IF THE ANTICYCLONE FORMS...ANDRES SHOULD STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. INDEED...FOR THE FIRST TIME THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS ANDRES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR. HOWEVER...THERE NEEDS TO BE BETTER EVIDENCE OF DECREASING SHEAR BEFORE THAT BECOMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SINCE ANDRES IS STRENGTHENING DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HR. ANDRES SHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM AT ABOUT 72 HR...AND THAT COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM AFTER THAT TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 10.9N 115.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 11.3N 118.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 11.9N 120.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 12.5N 123.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 13.1N 125.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 15.5N 134.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC