Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED MAY 21 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
ANDRES HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED. ANDRES HAS A SMALL BUT TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
CENTER LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION
WITH A FEW RAINBANDS TO THE EAST. ACCORDING TO DVORAK T-NUMBERS...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE
SHEAR COULD RELAX IN THE SHORT TERM...ALLOWING ANDRES TO STRENGTHEN
SOME. HOWEVER A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD BE
A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION. ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE ANDRES REACHES COOL
WATERS AND WEAKENING BEGINS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE
BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE EARLIER RUNS.

ANDRES IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER...ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
STEERED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
BECAUSE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY EXPAND
WESTWARD...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A
GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. WITH SUCH A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT STEERING
FLOW...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 10.6N 112.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.0N 114.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 11.5N 117.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 12.5N 120.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 122.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 136.0W    30 KT
 
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