ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003 CORRECTED 36 AND 48 HOURS FORECAST LOCATIONS AND INTENSITIES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC BUT WITH MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING. ALSO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. IN ANY CASE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 93 KNOTS IN 42 HOURS...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED FOR 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS AND COOLER SSTS ARE UNDER THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 9.8N 106.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 10.1N 108.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 10.5N 111.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 11.0N 113.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 11.7N 116.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 13.5N 121.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 14.5N 124.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC